NA-256: Miscounting or Software Error

On Oct-07-2013, The National Database Registration Authority or NADRA submitted its report of thumbprint verification for NA-256 (Karachi) to the election tribunal. Few weeks ago, NADRA also submitted a similar report for NA-258 (Karachi) to the election tribunal. Data on both reports shows substantial irregularities in both constituencies during the May, 11th general elections.

Data on both reports for both constituencies (NA-256 & NA-258) looks distinct at first glance but, when subjected to a thorough analysis, the data of both constituencies (NA-256 & NA-258) is almost identical.  

The results are shown in the Table.  

	NA 258	NA256	NA 258 in percentage	NA256 in percentage	Difference in percentage
Total Verified Votes	2,475	6,815	7.5%	8%	0.5%
Fake IDs	4,680	11,343	14.2%	13.3%	0.9%
Not Registered  in the constituency	435	791	1.3%	0.9%	0.4%
Duplicate votes	1,404	5,839	4.2%	6.8%	2.6%
No Finger prints	386	314	1.17%	0.3%	0.8%
Failed authentication	53	1,950	0.16%	2.3%	2.1%
Bad quality fingerprints	23,432	57,642	71%	68%	3%
Total Votes for verification	32,865	84,748	100%	100%

Initially, NADRA was capable of matching only 100 fingerprints per day but that capacity has been upgraded to 100,000 fingerprints per day at the Cost of Rs.10 per vote. According to the chairman of NADRA, Muhammad Tariq Malik, “increase capacity has been achieved through Automated Fingerprint Identification System (AFIS) software development by NADRA’s own engineers”

This prompted me to research AFIS further.

Automated Fingerprint Identification System (AFIS) 

The FBI initiated the project for automating fingerprint identification process in the United States in early 1960. In 1975 the first AFIS software was developed. In 1999, FBI upgraded their system from AFIS to Integrated Automated Fingerprint Identification System (IAFIS) which is largest finger printing database in the world. In 2009, the FBI announced plans to replace IAFIS with a Next Generation Identification system.

According to the FBI, 98% of all AFIS transactions required a manual review and approximately 15% all NGIS transactions still require a manual review.

AFIS technology

AFIS is an open-source software SDK (software development kit). A few years back, AFIS technology was proposed to the Yemeni government for voter verification but the project did not hit the shelves because of high rate of inaccuracy and discrepancies. Without manual review the inaccuracy rate was 90%, only 10% of the records were truly matched. The NADRA report data shows discrepancies of 7.5% and 8.0% of Total Verified Votes in (NA-256 & NA-258) respectively, which is under the accuracy rate of automated AFIS technology without manual review.

Optical character recognition (OCR) Technology

OCR is the mechanical or electronic conversion of scanned images of handwritten, typewritten or printed text into machine-encoded text. This technology is used by NADRA to convert and extract handwritten NIC numbers from vote counterfoils and run them against the NADRA NIC database for verification. According to leading OCR software companies the error rate for handwritten document is between 15%-20% depending on the image quality and writing style. NADRA reported data that shows 14.2% and 13.3% of fake ID numbers in (NA-256 & NA-258) respectively, which is within the percentage of software error rate.

For AFIS or OCR, the recommended image quality is between 500 to 1000 dpi, or dots per inch, for a better and desirable result. But currently, NADRA is scanning vote counterfoils images at 400 dpi, which definitely increases the capacity rate and, incidentally, the error rate.

Most importantly, NADRA civilian AFIS uses flat fingerprint, in which the finger is pressed down on a flat surface but not rolled. All the vote counterfoils were verified against the flat fingerprints. Any roll fingerprints / poor quality fingerprints / low ink fingerprints on counterfoils were categorized as “bad quality” fingerprints or “failed authentication”. The NADRA report data shows 71.2% and 70.3% “bad quality” fingerprints or “failed authentication” in (NA-256 & NA-258) respectively.

These were historic elections for Pakistan. The eyes of the world as well as the hopes of the country were pinned on them. They deserved the full attention of officials who were responsible for their execution. The fact that inaccurate software was used is inexcusable. All software used to decide the fate of a country should be state-of –the-art and the best possible available and not technology that has been discarded as being inaccurate.

AFIS and OCR are technologies that are not meant for bulk vote verification. Surely there are people in the election commission who were aware of the limitations of the software before they decided to go ahead and deploy it anyway. More importantly, the people should have been apprised of the possibility of these discrepancies ahead of time to avoid confusion after the results were in. Election is a process which demands transparency for validity. In the current volatile political atmosphere of Pakistan, deciding to use inaccurate and obsolete software proves that the citizens of Pakistan are still not the factor in these important choices. 

Also published in Express Tribune http://blogs.tribune.com.pk/story/19174/voting-inaccuracies-in-na-256-and-na-258-we-need-a-better-system/
Urdu Translation: http://newslinekarachi.blogspot.com/
Twitter ID @fawadrehman

Negotiations without a Red Line

Zaresh and Samreen, two bright students, were awarded scholarships to All Saints Church, Peshawar, after passing their intermediate exams from Saddar Convent. Their dreams came to an abrupt end on Sunday morning when they were blown apart along with scores of other parishioners. The church was the target of a suicide attack which left 81 dead and over 120 injured, one of the deadliest attacks ever on the Christian community in Pakistan.

The Jundullah wing of the Pakistani Taliban claimed responsibility.

The attack casts serious doubts on resolving any issues with the Taliban through negotiations and begs the question: will the Taliban ever halt their attacks without a clear Red Line drawn by the government of Pakistan?

A Taliban spokesman said: “They are the enemies of Islam, therefore we target them. We will continue our attacks on non-Muslims on Pakistani land.”

Recently held All Parties Conference (APC) passed a resolution by the representatives of the main coalition and opposition parties asking the government to "initiate dialogue" with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

“We repose full confidence in (the) efforts of the Prime Minister in this behalf and call upon the federal government to initiate the dialogue with all stakeholders”  the resolution said.

Few days after the APC,  Maj. Gen. Sanaullah, Lt. Col. Touseef and Sepoy Imran embraced Shahadat (martyrdom) when their vehicle hit a planted bomb (IED) in the Upper Dir district of northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

Proudly, the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) accepted responsibility for the attack.

PTI chairman Imran Khan, who was quick to condemn the US drone strike that killed the Taliban leader Wali-ur-Rehman, was silent after the attack on the  All Saints Church and the army convoy.  Imran Khan believes that these recent attacks are a “conspiracy against peace talks” He emphasizes that the Taliban are not the real enemy of Pakistan and the process of negotiations with them should continue.

Imran khan also asked the PML-N government to allow Pakistani Taliban to open offices in Pakistan.

On the other hand, liberal political parties in the province of Sindh, namely MQM, ANP, JUIF and PPP,  jointly issued a resolution condemning the barbaric suicide attack and called for action against the perpetrators.

Negotiations and peace pacts are not new terms for the Taliban.  The first pact between Government and the militants in South Waziristan was in 2004 followed by second and third peace deals in 2005 and 2006, respectively, in North Waziristan. All of these truces did not have a substantial effect in reducing bloodshed. The latter two deals were officially broken in August 2007. In 2008 government also made a peace agreement in Sawat with Maulana Fazlullah. The ANP government agreed to implement the Shari`a-based Nizam-e-Adl regulation in Swat. However, agreements failed in a month

Non-state actors such as rebels, warlords or militia groups do not have the same level of experience in negotiations that their government counterparts do. As a result, that weaker party may not understand the structure, pace and process of mediation, which may result in a failure of confidence in the peace initiative.

All Parties Conference (APC) failed to address key ingredient of Negotiation which resulted in continued attacks on civilians and the military,.

Drawing a “Red line” is an effective solution for many conflicts around the world.  Recently we have seen such examples in Syria, Afghanistan and Myanmar.

APC should have clearly spelled out that if “Any attack on civilian or military personals by TTP or their affiliated groups during the negotiation will be considered a violation and will result in a full scale military offense”. Setting this precondition would have forced to the TTP to halt their attacks and convinced their affiliates to stop their activities.

If governments still want to give peace and stakeholders another chance then the government has to define who will participate in negotiations, what issues are on or off the negotiations, what is an appropriate venue, and, importantly, define deadlines, and red lines otherwise future peace deals/Negotiations might end up as previous pacts/Negotiations.

Tragedy at the Washington Navy Yard

"Shooting at Washington Navy Yard", Around 9:00 a.m. I heard the tragic news on a local radio station. At first I thought that it was just another day in southeast Washington where residents are accustomed to the sounds of gunfire as cars honk on busy streets. But soon nightmare became the reality of another gun relating mass shooting involving a legally purchased gun by a mentally-ill person with a violent history, just 15 miles south of Washington DC. This is a tragic ongoing problem for America. Being a DC suburbs’ resident this heartbreaking incident hit a bit too close to home and too close to the heart.  Who did it? Why did he do it? What was the motive? Was it an individual or was it more than one? All these questions surfaced in my mind.

A lone shooter 34 year old Aaron Alexis, killed twelve people and injured eight others in a shooting rampage in the heart of the world at Washington DC’s secured Navy facility. As details of the incident were emerged, President Obama addressed the situation. "We're confronting yet another mass shooting," he said, "and today it happened on a military installation in our nation's capital.” 
Access to secure facilities, military installations or government buildings is not difficult when it comes to physical security. Practically anyone with one of the Common Access Cards (CAC) issued to troops, DoD employees, and government contractors can enter the secure facility without being checked. Often Contractors and employees with ID cards or CAC cards are allowed to bypass metal detector security gates at the entrance. Contractors can receive three levels of clearance: confidential, secret and top secret. Applicants fill out a very long form to apply for clearance, which asks about any contact with police, charges, and as well as questions pertaining to mental health. Aaron Alexis’s co-workers and the Buddhist monks at his temple claimed that “he was gentle and generally easygoing” but there was a dark side to Alexis. He was treated by the Veteran’s Administration for mental health issues, including paranoia, sleep disorders and hearing voices. Despite a recent history of mental illness Alexis was granted “secret” level clearance.Aaron Alexis successfully passed FBI and State of Virginia background checks to purchase a shotgun at a Lorton firearms dealer. Virginia gun laws only require valid identification for purchase for State residents. Background checks are needed for out-of-state buyers. Although Alexis was investigated by police in Fort Worth and Seattle for firing a handgun in incidents involving disputes with neighbors and, again, in 2010 when he discharged a firearm through a ceiling, he was able to purchase firearms.

 To prevent events like this in the future, the government needs to do some sensible things. Guns laws for buying and selling thought out the nation should be revisited. It should be impossible for people with any mental or criminal history to buy or, for that matter, carry firearms. There should be major efforts and resources directed towards improving mental health care in the country. Finances should be allocated for research and studies to find out what motivates these shooters. The physical security and access to all secure facilities, military installations and government buildings needs to be enhanced. More money should be allocated to enhance security and facility access control. Finally, background checks have to be much stricter to keep felons from gaining unrestricted access to secure facilities.

ALTAF HUSSAIN: GREAT LEADER AND GREAT TEACHER

Are great leaders born or made? We often ask ourselves this question. In Pakistan the answer is very simple; Leaders are born .If the person is born in a feudal family or in a Parliamentarian’s house, he or she is, by default, a leader. Current politics of Pakistan is full of so called “born leaders” like Bhutto, Sharif, Makhdoom, Sardar or Khan etc. Feudal mindset, nepotism and corruption are the common ingredients in these born leaders.  The truth is that great leaders are neither born nor made; they achieve that status through life experiences and learning opportunities that lead to development of leadership qualities and abilities.

On 17th September 1953, in a lower middle-class locality of Karachi known as Ibn-e-Sina line, a boy named Altaf Hussain was born to  Khurshid Begum and  Nazir Hussain.  After the creation of Pakistan on August 14, 1947, the parents of Mr. Altaf Hussain along with the whole family migrated to the newly created State of Pakistan and settled down in Karachi. Nazir Hussain, a former stationmaster in Indian Railways, took up a job as an office worker at a local mill in Karachi. 14 year old Altaf Hussain lost his father and his mother passed away later, in 1985. He got his early education in government schools and college.He went to Karachi University where he earned his Bachelor’s Degree in Pharmacy.

During his time at Karachi University, Altaf Hussain formed the student organization “ All Pakistan Muhajir Students Organization”   APMSO) on June 11th, 1978. Its objective was to provide political representation to the Muhajir community. In March 18th, 1984, APMSO was restructured to form Muhajir Qaumi Movement (MQM) and on July 26th, 1997 MQM transformed into Muttahida (united) Qaumi Movement. Currently MQM is the second largest party in Sindh and the traditionally the third largest in the country.

Party Discipline, honesty, vision, education, empowerment, communication, service to humanity and organizational setup are the few of the many components which took Altaf Hussain and his organization from zero to sixty within a few years.

Many leaders spend too much time telling people what they must accomplish and far too little time helping them learn how to get it done. Mr. Altaf Hussain was not only the founder and leader of the party but also a teacher of the party members. He accomplished this by starting study circles (Fikri Nashist) in which he illuminated, analyzed and found solutions to social, political and community problems. In his talks he emphasized nation and character building. Without Internet and modern communication tools, study circles were the most effective way of spreading the Ideology/message of MQM back in the 80s and 90s.

As a leader, Altaf Hussain built a loyal relationship with his followers. He built strong and motivated teams and was able to groom more leaders in a short interval of time than any other party since the existence of Pakistan. Instead of recruiting electables to his party, Altaf Hussain made the educated common man from the street an electable candidate. Dr Farooq Sattar was elected mayor of Karachi, at age 28,  the youngest person to hold this position. Late Dr. Imran Farooq was elected to the Pakistan National Assembly and became the Parliamentary Leader of MQM, at the age of 28, and Syed Mustafa Kamal, nazim (mayor) of the city of Karachi, are few examples of Altaf Hussain’s vision of leadership empowerment.

MQM's ideological and philosophical approach encompasses the concept of service to humanity without any prejudice or discrimination. Mr Altaf Hussain and his colleagues formed KKC (Khidmat-e-Khalq Committee) in 1978. Mr. Altaf Hussain and his associates contributed all their pocket money and remuneration received by giving tuition, to the KKC fund. From this money and the donations received from students, other less fortunate students were helped.  KKC was transformed into KKF, Khidmat-e-Khalq Foundation, in January 1998. KKF is now one of the biggest charitable organization in Pakistan with sister organizations in UK, USA and Canada.

Altaf Hussain was not born with golden spoon nor did he belong to a feudal family. He became a great leader by hard work, education, vision,and Ideology of social justice. His goal was the eradication of Corruption and his philosophy is that of Realism and Practicalism.  A great leader inspires people to have confidence in themselves and become better than they ever thought they could be. A great leader is one who knows the way, goes the way and shows the way. All great leaders lead by example and Altaf Hussain is one of them.

Twitter ID: @fawadrehman